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Over the past 40 years, the US economy has experienced four recessions. Among the four, only the extended downturn of 1979-1982 had a conventional cause. The US Federal Reserve thought that inflation was too high, so it hit the economy on the head with the brick of interest-rate hikes. As a result, workers moderated their demands for wage increases, and firms cut back on planned price increases.

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Goldman Sachs said the odds of the US imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports were 60 percent as trade tensions between the two countries escalate. That could bolster inflation as prices rise, the bank added.

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